The hyper-ribbon manifold: scattered prediction-error vectors collapsing onto a single low-dimensional indigo ribbon. Lupine Science accelerating materials discovery
= (γ) +

L(θ) · objective

Before a lab spends a year on a material, know whether to trust the prediction.

Machine-learned potentials now screen batteries, catalysts, and frameworks faster than any lab can test them. The gap is not speed. It is verification: a model can be confident and wrong, and the cost of finding out is measured in years and missed targets.

Characterize prediction error as a physical field, correct it at runtime, and machine-check every claim.

figures on this page are recomputed in-browser from the committed benchmark — see the data ↗

M · error manifold

Prediction errors collapse onto a low-dimensional ribbon.

1.1–2.0participation ratio: errors move in only ~1–2 directions out of five

range recomputed in-browser from the committed benchmark — see the data ↗

Across classic and machine-learned potentials, atomic-force errors do not scatter randomly. They line up. That geometry makes failure predictable, and predictable failure is correctable failure.

γE · error vectors

Shared error directions make failure predictable across models.

~70%of dominant error directions are shared across potentials

overlap recomputed in-browser from the committed benchmark — see the data ↗

The same local environments — surfaces, vacancies, under-coordinated sites — bias different potentials in similar directions. Where raw alignment can flatter (coupling-aware nulls reach 0.98), what survives blind tests is stronger: rankings hold (r = 0.906 across 36 model–material cells) and the error follows a smooth, coordination-keyed field. Read the live evidence

Ω(Ξ) · public ledger

Claims are checked by machine, in public.

899build-locked theorems in the open Lean library, zero sorry — counted from source

ribbon check recomputed in-browser from the committed benchmark — see the data ↗

Core claims are sealed as Lean 4 theorems with hash-locked provenance. The proof layer refuses as readily as it accepts — it once caught a rounded success count and changed 27 improvements to 26. The ledger is the public record of every claim, refutation, and correction.

The gap

Candidate generation outpaces testing. Generative models now propose far more materials than any lab can synthesize or characterize.

Simulation outpaces judgment. Machine-learned potentials screen candidates at software speed. The remaining question is when to believe them.

Verification closes the gap. A prediction checked before the bench saves years. A correction shared across potentials saves the same work everywhere the same geometry appears.

What this unlocks

The future is made of matter that doesn’t exist yet.

Batteries that hold more and degrade slower.

Energy storage lives and dies on electrode and electrolyte materials. When a model’s errors are characterized, a lab can trust its shortlist — and spend the year on the ten candidates that matter instead of the thousand that don’t.

Read the research

Catalysts that make clean industry affordable.

From green hydrogen to carbon capture, the cost curve is a materials problem. Correctable simulation means screening chemistries at software speed, with a clear read on when the simulation can be trusted.

See the instrument

Frameworks designed for jobs no known material can do.

Metal-organic frameworks can be built atom-by-atom for capture, storage and sensing. The crystal drawn above is real, published crystallography. The makeable-frameworks prospectus (a draft for discussion) is linked here.

Read the prospectus

Environmental series

Beyond carbon: the error geometry of environmental materials.

Five articles trace the same under-coordination error from CO₂ capture to water, air, methane, refrigerants, critical minerals, PFAS, and cement — and how a single correction layer changes what labs can trust. The series is published as working drafts; each page carries its draft status.

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